Why has Biden pulled ahead in battleground states and is now projected to win the 2024 presidency?
07.06.2025 16:08
Even people who aren’t particularly interested in politics can see the drastic differences between the two candidates. Trump was just found liable of sexual assault and fraud in civil court, convicted of a 34-count indictment in New York, and is still under indictment in DC, Florida, and Georgia. Biden didn’t interfere in his son’s trial and said that he wouldn’t pardon him while Trump pardoned numerous criminals that were part of his campaign team and allowed his daughter and son-in-law to make billions acting as advisors while also helping Ivanka receive dozens of new trademarks from China in the middle of a trade war. More Americans can identify with Biden who knows you don’t need an ID to buy groceries and agree with making billionaires and the top companies in the country pay their fair share of taxes, unlike Trump who wants to eliminate income taxes in favor of imposing tariffs, which would disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans and make the cost of everyday goods far more expensive for the country. While the wealthiest Americans would save a lot more money than middle and working class Americans if they didn’t have to pay income taxes of taxes on capital gains and dividends, Trump’s tariff plan would make the already high cost of living even more expensive for people who are already struggling to pay their bills.
Both Biden and Trump started out their presidencies with trifectas, although Trump had a larger majority in the House and the Senate during the 115th Congress than Biden did during the 117th. Trump spent a year trying to repeal the ACA and after failing to get the votes needed in the Senate, passed a budget reconciliation bill that cut the corporate tax rate and cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans. He failed to pass any meaningful legislation while the Republicans controlled both chambers or after the midterms when the Democrats flipped the House. Roughly 90% of Trump’s former cabinet members refused to endorse him, and looking back at his presidency, there were numerous times when cabinet members, cabinet-level officials, or other White House officials resigned in protest to Trump and claimed he was unfit to be the president. Numerous former members of his administration also wrote books about his corruption, incompetence, and inability to do the job, and along with spending over a year on vacation, when Trump was in DC, he spent most of his time binge-watching Fox News or tweeting, sometimes as often as 300 times in a single day.
Confidence in the Supreme Court is at an all-time low, and with both Justices Thomas and Alito in their 70’s, if Trump wins both can retire knowing that they’ll be replaced with conservatives leaving the Supreme Court with a conservative majority for decades. There are also voters who think that the Supreme Court should be expanded to 13 seats so that there’s one justice for each circuit court, and to make the balance of power on the court more fair since the Republicans blocked Merrick Garland’s nomination claiming that no justice should be confirmed in an election year, then violated their own precedent to ram Barrett’s confirmation through the Senate after people had started voting in 2020. The Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one election going back to 1992, and a conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court was only achieved through underhanded tactics by Republicans who are far more concerned with power than governing or even attempting to address the concerns of their constituents.
Biden started his presidency with a slim majority in the House and a technical majority in the evenly split Senate because of the Vice President’s ability to break ties. In addition to the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, both of which were budget reconciliation bills passed along party lines in the House and Senate, the 117th Congress was one of the most productive Congresses in terms of legislation passed with bipartisan support. With help from about a dozen Republican senators, the Democrats passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Protecting Moms Who Served Act, the Emmett Till Antilynching Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Honoring our PACT Act, the Respect for Marriage Act, the Protecting Firefighters from Adverse Substances Act, the Human Trafficking Prevention Act, the Strengthening VA Cybersecurity Act, the Faster Payments to Veterans' Survivors Act, the Electoral Reform Act, and other legislation included in the Consolidated Appropriations Act.
Polling has been unreliable in the past few elections, especially since Biden took office, with most polls favoring the Republicans despite their incompetence, obstruction, and inability to govern. Throughout 2022, the polls were predicting a “red wave” election, but aside from gerrymandering their way to a House majority and flipping the governorship in Nevada to a non-MAGA Republican who campaigned on protecting women and doctors from prosecution for receiving or performing abortions despite his personal views on the issue, the Democrats won the majority of statewide races in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while flipping the only Senate seat in the election. Trump has hurt the GOP in every election going back to 2018, and even though there are a lot of Americans who would prefer if 2024 wasn’t a rematch between Biden and Trump, the majority realize that Biden has been able to get a lot of the legislation he campaigned on passed while Trump is only running to avoid going to trial in Georgia, DC, and Florida, and to continue to enrich himself and his family like he did when he served his first term.
Considering the Democrats only had control of an evenly split Senate with Senator Manchin on the center-right and Senators Sanders and Warren on the left, the Senate Democrats proved that rival factions of the caucus could work together to get the 2 budget reconciliation bills passed without a single vote to spare. On the other hand, the House Republicans, who started out the 118th Congress with the same exact majority that the Democrats started the 117th Congress with (222–213), took 15 ballots to elect McCarthy Speaker, ousted him before the year was over, and took another 3 weeks to elect Speaker Johnson. They haven’t passed any meaningful legislation since January 2023 and the majority of the resolutions they passed to keep the government open relied on Democratic votes, and the rival factions in the Republican Party have proven that they can’t work together, especially when it comes to getting the legislation they campaigned on passed.
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The Democrats outperformed the Republicans in the midterms in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, at the state level in Wisconsin, and although regular conservative Republicans like Governor Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger won their re-elections in Georgia by comfortable margins, Senator Warnock (D) defeated Trump-endorsed MAGA Republican Herschel Walker, which was the fourth time since 2020 that Georgia has voted for a Democrat over a MAGA Republican. Assuming Biden wins the same states that both him and Clinton won, the election will be decided by Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, of which Biden needs to win 3 to win the election. It’s unlikely that Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Wisconsin will flip back to Trump since he’s an even less attractive candidate now than in the last 2 elections, and is spending so much money on legal fees that he can’t afford to put boots on the ground in the key battleground states and he can’t even give a coherent speech without going off on tangents that make no sense or just giving up when he loses his train of thought. Biden may not be a charismatic and talented orator like Obama, but he can give a coherent speech where he explains what his administration’s legislative accomplishments have been and what he plans to do as far as legislation is concerned if elected to a second term.
Trump has also alienated a lot of people who used to be reliable Republican voters, especially moderate Republicans and center-right independents who stopped supporting the GOP not long after he took office. There are about two dozen congressional districts that used to be GOP strongholds that are now represented by Democrats, and since 2017, the Democrats have flipped US Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. Biden has outperformed Trump in virtually every state that’s held a primary, and even though she dropped out of the race in March, Nikki Haley is still getting double digit support The majority of Haley voters have said that they won’t support Trump in the general election, and a substantial number have said that they will vote for Biden in November. The majority of the Democrats who voted for Williamson, Phillips, or uncommitted will likely vote for Biden in November since their biggest concern is preventing another Trump presidency, and unlike Haley supporters who have said they’d support Biden, these voters definitely aren’t going to support Trump in the general election.
Despite what earlier polling about the election said, the majority of Americans realize that another Trump presidency would be disastrous and Trump is on the wrong side of virtually every important issue. The top issues for Americans going into November are women’s reproductive rights, the economy, the threat to democracy that Trump and Republicans are, foreign policy, healthcare, immigration, and the lack of confidence the majority of Americans have for the current Supreme Court. Trump is personally taking credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, left office with a poor economy after adding trillions to the deficit, is campaigning on becoming a dictator on Day 1 and getting revenge on his political opponents, spent his entire presidency trying to repeal the ACA, first through Congress and then through the courts, recently killed GOP Senator Lankford’s immigration bill solely to deny Biden a legislative accomplishment and to give himself an issue to campaign on, and turned the Supreme Court into the judicial arm of the Republican Party during his presidency.
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When it comes to foreign policy, most Americans have views that are more similar to Biden’s than Trump’s. Republicans used to be the hardliners when it came to countries like Russia or North Korea, and not only did Trump have a better relationship with Putin than our allies, he took his word over that of our intelligence agencies for the whole world to see and praised him as a “savvy genius” after Russia invaded Ukraine. President Biden has a much better relationship with heads of state and government in countries we’re allied with, and while Trump wants to pull the US out of NATO, two new countries were added to NATO since Russia invaded Ukraine during Biden’s presidency.
Since Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the Republicans in nearly 20 states have either banned abortion or limited the amount of time a pregnant woman has to make the decision. In most states with abortion bans, there are no exceptions for rape or incest, and in a lot of cases, a judge has had to determine whether a woman facing life-threatening complications can have a life-saving medical procedure done. Americans don’t like to hear about a 10 year old rape victim who had to travel to another state to get an abortion, women nearly dying because they can’t get the medical help they need in the states they live in, victims of rape or incest being forced to have their assailant’s baby, or that rapists, child molesters, and their families can sue victims if they get an abortion. Even among people that consider themselves to be pro-life, these laws go too far and they are against certain policy proposals like creating a database to keep track of women’s menstrual cycles or trying to make it a crime for a woman to leave their state to get an abortion in a state where the procedure is legal.
While Trump is personally taking credit for the new precedent, President Biden has said that if the voters can give him a Democratic majority in the House and elect enough Democratic senators who are willing to use a mini-nuke to pass a bill that would provide women with the same protections they had when Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, he’d sign it into law. Every referendum held on this issue has resulted in the majority of voters wanting to keep abortion legal, including in red or right-leaning states like Kentucky, Kansas, Montana, and Ohio. While there are women who agree with these abortion bans, the majority of women are against them, and while inconvenient for the Republicans, we make up half of the electorate.
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